To be back in Monrovia after 32 years is a great experience and a strange feeling. Much looks the same, yet is different. The sight of people walking in the streets is not much different from the 1970s when we lived here. Young boys in their ragtag clothes, schoolgirls in their uniforms, market women balancing their trading goods with great skill on their heads, and many, many men to whom I look suspiciously, wondering what they have been doing in the war.

At first sight the biggest difference is the traffic, much busier than before. Taxis are overcrowded all day long, not only during rush hours. It seems that a cab’s capacity is always one person more than one would expect. The numerous 4 WD vehicles are an indication of a bustling ngo-world. Nobody knows how many non-governmental organizations exist in the country, definitely more than one hundred though. Another remarkable difference with the calm years of the 1970s has to do with the numerous new buildings and construction activities. Monrovia clearly is recovering from the war. Led by Mary Broh, Monrovia’s energetic and ambitious mayoress, the nation’s capital is being cleaned and rebuilt, though much remains to be done.

Already on the first day of my renewed visit to Monrovia I unexpectedly had a chance to visit the campus of the University of Liberia - where I had been teaching economics in the 1970s. Chased by a power failure in our conference room we sought and found a better place at the UL. I was flabbergasted at the sight of the university campus. Many new buildings in addition tot the old buildings which I of course immediately recognized: the Science department building, the Main Building housing the president of the university, and – from far – the College of Business and Public Administration where I had been teaching.

I saw crowds of young people: students. When later that day I met the Dean of the College of Business and Public Administration he told me that there were now at least 24,000 students registered at the university, 9,000 of them were following courses at the Business College. Again I compared: in the 1970s there were 2,000 students at the University of Liberia and some 500 at the College of Business and Public Administration. Also, in the seventies there were only two universities in Liberia: the UL and Cuttington College, as it was then called, in Bong County. Now there are 9 accredited universities, most of them private, and the total number of university students is being estimated at some 45,000!

Despite this spectacular growth in the number of universities, most of the institutions are only universities in name, one Liberian expert told me. Only the University of Liberia and Cuttington University offer a – limited – number of post-graduate courses, the other universities only undergraduate courses. To obtain  an MA Liberians students still have to go abroad.

Nowadays huge numbers of students are largely explained by the civil wars (1989-1996; 1998-2003) when life was disrupted and  hundreds of thousands of young people were prevented from attending classes in primary and secondary schools. Now, everybody want to catch up. Liberians are eager to learn but conditions are rough. The quality of the educational sytem leaves much to be desired. A recent USAID survey showed that 34% of Liberia’s second graders could not identify a single word! Reading speed of students is low, sometimes half of that of students in Europe and the USA. Improved teacher training is imperative – but where to start?

Today is a very special day: after 32 years I again set foot on Liberian soil! With my wife and two-year old son I left the country in the aftermath of the bloody 1980 coup that left President Tolbert dead and brought master-sergeant Samuel K. Doe to power, the country’s first indigenous  president. We crossed the Liberian/Ivorian border on April 22, 1980, the day thirteen government officials and True Whig Party leaders were savagely  executed on the beach of Monrovia.

The drive from Robertsfield International Airport where we landed this afternoon to the capital Monrovia was one with familiar scenes: palm trees everywhere, which immediately reminded me of the nearly-historic song ‘Precious Palm Tree’ of one of Liberia’s most famous singers, Mahalia Jackson Parker. The abundant green vegetation left no doubt: the rainy season had started. With a humidity of 77% the climate was bearable despite its 91 degrees F. (RealFeel 105).

Monrovia had become much more busy, compared to the 1970s when we lived here. No wonder, the population trippled between 1980 and 2010, mainly because of the influx of people during the civil wars that brought the modern economy nearly to a standstill and left nearly a quarter of a million people dead. The unemployment rate is shocking high: some 90 per cent of the population has no paid job. Tubman Boulevard, the capital’s main entrance coming from the international airport is now a four lane highway and we ran into a traffic jam caused by well-to-do Monrovians returning to their homes after a pleasant day at the beaches outside the capital.

Liberia always surprises. The US dollar is legal tender but also the Liberian dollar is used. The local banknotes are in the denomination of $5.00, $10.00, $20.00, $50.00 and $100.00. Just as in the USA, the Liberian dollar notes bear the effigy of past presidents. Three of the five presidents shown on the Liberian bank notes had a violent death: E.J. Roye, victim of the country’s first coup d’état (5 dollar note), Samuel K. Doe (50 dollars) and William R. Tolbert, Jr. (100 dollars). How many Liberians would know the history of these men who each stand for an important part of the country’s past?

Five years after the beginning of the ‘Taylor trial’ and after having heard nearly 100 witnesses, the judges of the Special Court for Sierra Leone  announced their historic decision: the former Liberian president is found guilty of aiding and abetting war crimes.

The warlord-turned-president is found guilty of 11 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity for arming Sierra Leone rebels in exchange for ‘blood diamonds’ smuggled across the Sierra Leonean / Liberian border. According to the judges, Taylor played a crucial role in allowing the rebels to continue a bloody rampage in Sierra Leone during that West African nation’s 11-year civil war, which ended in 2002 with more than 50,000 dead.

Charles Taylor, once the most wanted man in West Africa, hears the verdict, apparently without emotion, but insiders know from the subtile movements of his hands and the way he looks behind his golden-rimmed shaded glasses that he realizes he is going to spend a yet unknown number of years in an English prison. The Dutch government had agreed that his trial would take place in The Hague, for this occasion seat of the Special Court for Sierra Leone – the official seat, the country’s capital Freetown, was not considered safe enough – on condition that if convicted another country would be willing to accept the convicted war criminal. The UK government had responded positively to the Dutch wishes.

The verdict is historic: it is the the first time since 1945 – the Nuremberg Trials - that a head of state is convicted. Ironically – Liberia continues to make history. The country is not only the first and oldest African Republic, created in 1847. Also, its President, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf is the first democratically elected female African president. Moreover, in 2011 she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, another historic achievement. And now Taylor’s conviction, although a less noble accomplishment.

The conviction of former President Charles Taylor, once a warlord, then president, now a preacher, represents a victory of justice even though the victims’ grief and sorrow can never be compensated by his languishing in jail. The Special Court has scheduled a sentencing hearing for May 16 and the sentencing judgement will be delivered on May 30 next. Under the Special Court Rules, sentences must be given in a specified term of years. The  Court may not impose a life sentence or the death penalty.

By the way, the Taylor Trial cost about US$ 250 million….

No end to impunity

The conviction of warlord-turned-president Charles Taylor does not mean an end to impunity in Africa. Taylor stood trial for crimes committed in Sierra Leone, not for his role in the Liberian civil wars (1989-1996; 1998-2003). In 2009, the Liberian Truth and Reconciliation Committee (TRC) in its final report recommended that all Liberian warlords be prosecuted: Charles Taylor, Prince Johnson, Roosevelt Johnson, Alhaji Kromah, George Boley, Thomas Nimley, Sekou Konneh and François Massaquoi. The report was shelved. Liberian warlords walk free in Liberia.

Former heads of state Mengistu of Ethiopia and Habré of Chad are internationally wanted for their crimes yet manage to escape from justice for more than twenty years: Haile Mariam Mengistu lives comfortably in Maguba’s Zimbabwe, and Hissein Habré in one of Africa’s most stable democracies, Senegal. Incumbent President Omar Al-Bashir of Sudan is indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes but still at large and enjoying his freedom. And some heads of state, like Burkinabe president Blaise Compoare, are not even indicted for the blood on their hands.

Also criminal warlords Joseph Kony and Bosco Ntaganda are fugitives but not yet arrested. The accusations against them are well known: war crimes, abductions, enlisting child soldiers a.s.o

And what about the impunity of corrupt African leaders like Teodoro Obiang Nguema, president of Equatorial Guinea, and his son Teodorine? Their compulsive kleptomania is almost beyond belief.

Concluding, the verdict in the Charles Taylor case certainly represents a landmark in international justice. However, though an important battle was won, not the war against impunity in Africa. Let’s face it.

(AP Photo/Larry Downing, Pool)

Monrovia, Liberia. January 16, 2012 was neither a day to look back with regret or anger nor to look forward with anxiety or doubt. Rather it was a day to rejoice and celebrate. At 11:00 am President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Africa’s first – and until now only – democratically elected woman president, was inaugurated for a second six-year term. By the time the 73-year old ‘Iron Lady’ will have completed her second term, in 2018, she will be Liberia’s longest-serving President since 1971.

In 1971 the country’s longest-ruling President ever, William Tubman, died. He ruled for 27 years and laid the basis for a modern economy. His successor, William Tolbert, was brutally murdered in a bloody coup d’état staged by enlisted men of the Liberian Army led by master-sergeant Samuel Doe (1980). President Doe – who became Liberia’s first president of tribal descent – was savagely murdered too, in 1990. Two extremely violent civil wars followed. At least 200,000 Liberians lost their lives, many more were wounded and traumatized. The wars resulted in at least one million displaced people and wrecked the modern economy. In 2003, Liberia’s president, dictator and former warlord Charles Taylor, was arrested on charges of war crimes and human rights violations in Sierra Leone and handed over to the Special Court for Sierra Leone. At present, Taylor awaits his verdict in The Hague which is due soon.

In 2005 Ellen Johnson Sirleaf defeated in the second round of the presidential elections soccer star George Weah and thus became Africa’s first democratically elected female president. In November last year she again won the elections in a second round which was boycotted by the main opposition party led by Winston Tubman, nephew of the former president, and George Weah. On the eve of Sirleaf’s inauguration they both made a U-turn and accepted theit defeat and promised to co-operate with the new Administration.

As a World Bank expert and Harvard educated economist, President Sirleaf’s experience and international network helped her with numerous achievements during her first mandate: cancellation of the country’s staggering US$ 4 billion debt, successfully negotiating foreign direct investments in the agricultural and mining sectors totalling over US$ 13 billion, and maintaining a fragile peace – aided by a United Nations-led military mission in Liberia, UNMIL.

However, Liberia and Madame President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf face numerous challenges. UNMIL’s US$ 524 million budget for 2010/2011 exceeded that of the Liberian Government for the same period. Yet, it even was worse a few years earlier. When President Sirleaf took office, in 2006, the national budget amounted to only US$ 80 million (yes indeed, eighty millions US dollars). Over the years, Sirleaf has managed to substantially raise the budget and the Liberian Legislature voted a US$ 550 million budget for FY 2011/2011. Not much for a country of 3 million people and a war-wrecked economy. Fortunately, President Sirleaf’s international reputation has resulted in Liberia being one of the world’s most popular donor darlings. International aid to Liberia was estimated at about US$ 1 billion in 2010, including UNMIL.

Liberia’s problems are numerous: unemployment, illiteracy, corruption, lack of infrastructure, a poor health situation. Perhaps even more important are the need for National Reconciliation – Liberians still struggle with the emotional consequences of the civil wars – and National Unification, a legacy from former times, going back as far as the country’s creation in 1847 by freed slaves and free-born blacks from the United States – who liked to call themselves Americo-Liberians – and whose descendents ruled Africa’s first republic without any power-sharing with the tribal population until 1980.

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf is well placed to handle these problems though alone she will not be able to overcome them. As the granddaughter of a Gola chief and raised in an Americo-Liberian family she may make a difference. Internationally she is admired, she won the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize. At home she can boast of impressive achievements though her star has started fading in recent years culminating in political tension and even deadly violence during the November elections. In her Inaugural Address she promised to work for jobs, to give Liberia’s youth the skills they need to prosper, and to fight graft.

Liberia’s political stability and economic progress depend on jobs, jobs and jobs. Lacking the funds needed to finance the necessary investments, the country can’t move forward without foreign investors and donors. Without UNMIL, internal peace is fragile and not guaranteed. As one of my Liberians friends told me: We need foreign funds to develop and foreign troops to keep the peace.

During the Tubman Administration (1944-1971), Liberia experienced an economic boom, with a double digit growth rate. Yet, it was Growth without Development, as a Northwestern University team labelled Liberia’s economic success story. Today, with Ellen Johnson Sirleaf on the steering wheel, Liberia has the potential to do better. Already, the country is experiencing an impressive economic growth rate – which though should not surprise as the country comes from far.

National unification and reconciliation are among Liberia’s top priorities. This means power-sharing, equal opportunities for all Liberians, and justice for all.

Economic justice, as President Sirleaf calls it, seems to be as important: job creation, education & training, notably for Liberia’s youth, and the fight against corruption.

There is a time for celebrations, there is a time for hard work. The party is over. The time to work hard has come.

It is too early to tell who the winners are in these North African countries. In Tunisia democratic elections have since been held, won by the moderate Islamist party Ennahda, but political developments don’t stop after elections. In Egypt, with well over 80 million people the most populated country of the three, the new military rulers are reluctant to hand over power to democratically elected political leaders. Libya is a ‘powder keg’. It is uncertain what the outcome will be of the internal power struggle. The country is small but has vast oil and gaz reserves. Will the country remain ‘united’? For geo-political reasons (Egypt – playing a pivotal role in the Middle East conflict) and economic-strategic interests (Libya – oil and energy supply to the USA and Western Europe),  developments in 2012 will be closely watched by the international community. But above all, the people in these countries deserve honest and democratically elected leadership.

For the biggest winners in 2011 we have to turn to West Africa. The biggest winners here are two Nigerians, Lamido Sanusi and Aliko Dangote, the Gambian Fatou Bensouda, two Liberians, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Leymah Gbowee, and the former Cape Verde president Pedro Pires.

Ex-President Pedro Pires won the prestigious Mo Ibrahim Prize, a USD 5 million
governance prize for exceptional African leadership. Mohamed Ibrahim is a Sudanese
mobile communications entrepreneur and billionaire, who created this Prize for democratically elected former African heads of state to reward democratic leadership and the peaceful transition of power. Liberian President Sirleaf, Africa’s first democratically
elected female President, and peace activist Gbowee were honored with this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, an achievement widely covered by news media all over the world.

The Gambian lawyer Fatou Bensouda will succeed Luis Moreno-Ocampo as the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC). She will thus be a key actor in the trial of former Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo, one of the biggest losers in Africa in 2011. Gbagbo refused to hand over power to Alassane Ouattara after losing the presidential elections in 2010 causing a violent four-month conflict. He was handed over to the ICC in November of this year, indicted of crimes against humanity and is held responsible for murder, rape and other crimes allegedly committed by his backers as he clung to power.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Africa’s most populated country with 150 million people, Lamido Sanusi, was named by Forbes Africa Person of the Year 2011. Governor Sanusi has played a key role in masterminding and supervising extensive reforms in Nigeria’s banking sector. His compatriot Aliko Dangote is a succesful multi-billion businessman, who in 2011 overtook Mohammed Al Amoudi and Oprah Winfrey as the richest person in the world of African descent. The Dangote group owns subsidiaries in six African countries and employs over 10,000 people. Nigeria’s ambition is to belong to the group of 20 most important economies in the world in 2020 – nowadays it is Africa’s biggest economy after South Africa – and with people like Dangote and Sanusi I have little doubt that the country will succeed.

Another West African country deserves mentioning. Ghana is among the region’s leaders, being in 2011 the second-best performer in Sub-Saharan Africa on the Rule of Law Index of the Washington-based World Justice Project. Ghana was also the best performer among the group of 66 low-income countries world-wide, covered by the Index. The country also continued to do well economically, in 2011.

The Republic of South Africa was the best African performer on the Rule of Law Index. South Africa also remains Africa’s biggest economy, but has reasons to fear Nigeria as a serious competitor.

Election Year 2011

In the beginning of this year I published a series of posts on ‘Bullet or ballot propelled changes in Africa’ focusing the political future of African countries and particularly the multi-party presidential elections that were to take place in 2011. See my posts dated March 1 and March 8. Out of 53 African countries – including the Republic of South Sudan which joined the community of African nations in July of this year – 18 countries planned to have presidential elections in 2011 (with 9 countries also holding legislative elections), an unprecedented high number. What was the outcome? Who were the winners? Who were the losers?

Well, of the 18 planned presidential elections two have been postponed (in Madagascar and Zimbabwe), one was cancelled because of a people’s revolution (Egypt). In the remaining 15 countries , 11 incumbent presidents saw their mandates renewed. As I stated before, African presidents don’t like to give up power. Only in four countries the oppositional candidate won the elections: the West-African island-nations of Cape Verde and Sao Tomé & Principe, Sahelcountry Niger in West Africa, and Zambia in Southern Africa.

Central Africa
In Central Africa four incumbent presidents managed to stay in power: Paul Biya, nick-named ‘The Gaddafi of Black Africa’ in Cameroon (ruling the country with an iron fist since 1982) ; Chad’s Idriss Deby (who chased dictator Hissein Habré in 1990 but has since remained in power), former army chief of staff François Bozizé in the Central African Republic (president after winning an internal power struggle in 2003), and Joseph Kabila who in 2001 succeeded his assassinated father.

Kabila was recently inaugurated after disputed presidential elections which the main oppositional candidate Thsisekedi claims to have won. Only one president attended Kabila’s inauguration, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, and the Obama Administration has raised doubts over the legitimacy of his re-election. The situation in this vast country, big as Western Europe, risks to deteriorate and an Ivory Coast like scenario is feared.

East Africa
The three presidential elections were all won by the incumbent presidents (between brackets the year of coming to power): Museveni in Uganda (1986), Ismael Omar Guelleh in Djibouti (who succeeded his uncle Hassan Gouled Aptidon in 1999) and James Michel of the Seychelles, an Indian Ocean archipelago (2004).

Southern Africa
As already mentioned, elections were postponed in Zimbabwe and Madagascar, and won by the opposition in Zambia. Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe is one of the longest ruling African leaders: since the country’s independence in 1980.

West Africa
In Nigeria, ‘southerner’ Goodluck Jonathan was elected in his own right, after assuming the Presidency following the death of the ‘northerner’ Yar’Adua in 2010. The political tension between the north and the south of the country remains one of the most dangerous threats to Nigeria’s political stability and hence its economic aspirations. In neighbouring Benin, President Yayi Boni (2006) was re-elected whereas also Madame President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf obtained (2006) a second mandate. Finally, in the tiny republic of The Gambia dictator Jammeh (1994) won elections which hardly deserve the name.

Is there a conclusion that can be drawn from the foregoing?

Despite the demonstrated tendency of African presidents to remain at all costs in the presidential palace, I am optimistic that 2012 will bring (more) positive developments. Overall, African countries are economically not performing badly, despite the global economic crisis. Mobile telephone, internet and the use of social media have become major instruments for the dissemination of information. Events in North Africa have demonstrated that the people’s will to remove their power-thirsty and corrupt presidents can prevail. Strong people in West Africa have gained world-wide admiration and recognition. Of course, people like the Sudanese president al-Bashir have managed to avoid arrest, with the protection of certain fellow-presidents, but the day will certainly come that he also will face justice before the ICC in The Hague. May Gaddafi’s summarily execution and Gbagbo’s fate in The Hague serve as a deterrent for the dictators and human rights violators that Africa unfortunately still counts.

I wish you all a prosperous, happy and healthy 2012!

Growing political support for Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

The first round of the presidential elections was won by the Unity Party (UP) candidate, incumbent president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, with 44% of the votes. Not enough for an outright victory since that would have necessitated more than 50% of the votes. Second came the presidential candidate of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) , Winston Tubman, with 33% of the votes. Number three was National Union for Democratic Progress (NUDP) leader Prince Johnson (12%) and number four Liberty Party (LP) Standard Bearer Charles Brumskine who seized 6% of the votes.

In the run-off elections of November 8, President Sirleaf faced Winston Tubman, the number 2 of the first round. Since Liberian politics is a near-family affair, they know each other well. In her autobiography ‘This Child Will Be Great’ Ellen Johnson Sirleaf describes how Winston Tubman and she attended the same  meetings of the Progressive Alliance of Liberia (PAL), a grouping of progressive Liberians in the United States of America, way back in the 1970s. Furthermore, both are Harvard educated and have worked in international organizations, the UN and the World Bank. Moreover, both are septuagenarians with firm roots in Liberia’s political establishment, traditionally dominated by the Americo-Liberian elite. So what exactly was the difference between the two candidates and their political programs?

Frankly speaking, I don’t know. The campaign for the Executive Mansion was more about characters than contents.

Both Sirleaf and Tubman were seconded by ‘silent partners’: Sirleaf by Vice President Joseph Boakai – relatively little is known about this man from Lofa County who from 1983-1985 served as Minister of Agriculture under President Samuel Doe. Tubman’s running mate was football legend George Weah, who had been defeated in the 2005 run-off elections by Sirleaf. It is interesting to note that Winston Tubman also served under Samuel Doe, as Minister of Justice from 1982-1983. In 2005 he unsuccessfully ran for president for the National Democratic Party of Liberia (NDPL), the political party of the murdered president Samuel Doe. For the 2011 elections he joined the Congress of Democratic Change (CDC), Weah’s political party.

Already one week after the first round, Prince Y. Johnson, Senator for Nimba County, former warlord, ally of Charles Taylor before forming his own warring faction, and responsible for the murder of dictator Samuel Doe in 1990, announced his support for President Sirleaf in the second round. His motivation? ‘She is the lesser of two evils’, he said. However, there were rumors that a financial sum was involved. Three days later presidential candidate Winston Tubman was suddenly flown to Ghana, for medical treatment. It was unclear whether it was exhaustion or a severe malaria crisis. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s chances to win a second term were increasingly good.

October saw more political support for President Sirleaf. Presidential candidate Charles Brumskine, also a close ally of Charles Taylor before he broke with him, declared his support for Sirleaf during the second round of voting although the two had over the years seriously clashed. ‘Ellen is better than Tubman’ said Brumskine. Monrovians allege that he was offered the ECOWAS Vice Presidency which Liberia had assumed the previous day. There is no proof to support this, only future developments may tell.

Another presidential candidate Togba-Nah Tipoteh, a political old-timer and uncle of George Weah, endorsed the Unity Party presidential candidate, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Tipoteh, also a septuagenarian, served under Samuel Doe, as Minister of Planning and Economic Affairs from 1980 till 1981, when he fled to the Netherlands, fearing for his life. He is considered one of the most independent politicians. More support for the incumbent President came from Moses Blah, from Nimba County, and another former ally of warlord-President Charles Taylor. Vice President Moses Blah briefly took over the presidency after Taylor’s forced resignation in 2003.

Tubman, Weah, CDC increasingly dissatisfied and isolated

Thousands of international and national observers monitored the October 11 elections and found them free and fair. Notwithstanding the foregoing, some irregularities did happen, as was also acknowledged by the observation team led by former US President Carter. Most of these ‘irregularities’ concerned the CDC, the main opposition party.

The CDC claimed elections fraud and substantiated this with facts and pictures. Then followed a game of threatening with withdrawal from the run-off elections unless certain conditions were met, actual withdrawal, reversal, Winston Tubman declaring he was not informed about the conditions for participating or boycotting. In the end, one of the CDC conditions was met – the resignation of the Chairman of the National Elections Committee (NEC), James Fromoyan, accused of being too pro-UP – but still the CDC announced it would not participate in the run-off elections. The new boss of the NEC, Elizabeth Nelson, however, ordered the run-off elections to continue, with two parties and presidential candidates competing – the UP/Sirleaf and the CDC/Tubman – since the ballot papers had already been printed.

On the eve of the run-off elections, a peaceful demonstration held by CDC supporters ended with at least five people shot dead by the Liberian National Police. Why they did not fire rubber bullets to disperse the crowd but fired live ammunition killing demonstrators is mind-boggling. To make things worse, the Government of Liberia ordered the closure of several media outlets, radio and television stations, perceived to be pro-opposition, and accused of a hate campaign. Was it a panic-driven decision, a conscious disregard for the freedom of the press, or politically motivated?

The violence and fear of more violence plus the CDC appeal to boycott the run-off elections resulted in a low turnout of voters. Many voting boots were almost empty, all day long. A sharp contract with the first round when many people patiently waited outside the voting stations for their turn to vote.

A bittersweet victory

Provisional results of the run-off elections show us that less than 700,000 votes were cast. This means a turnout of about 38%. With almost 100% of the votes received (97% – as of November 11) more than 90% of the votes counted were in favor of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Winston Tubman received less than 10% of the votes. Some 580,000 people had voted for Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.

The objective of the CDC opposition was to undermine the legitimacy of the election of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. To a large extent, it has succeeded doing so. Nevertheless, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf will be Liberia’s president for the next six years. The international community, generally speaking, will be satisfied with the result. However – and maybe more important given Liberia’s fragile peace and political stability – Liberians clearly are divided about the outcome of the presidential elections.

Challenges

The above means that President Sirleaf faces more than ever the challenge to unite and reconcile Liberians. She will not only have to perform good in the eyes of the international community – who rewarded her with a Nobel peace prize, the cancellation of the country’s 4 billion dollar foreign debt, and with 13 billion dollars in committed foreign investments. She will also have to convince Liberians that she takes their complaints about the rampant corruption in the country seriously. She needs to avoid the impression of nepotism, putting relatives and confidants in high ranking positions, as now is the case. She may need to prove accusations of economic empire building to be wrong. Maybe above all, she will have to give hope to all Liberians that their future will be better than the past years. I am afraid that if she would fail to meet these expectations she will face serious difficulties during her second term.

President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has won this battle, and I sincerely congratulate her with this achievement. However, she has not won the war. Her victory is bittersweet.

Liberia comes from far. Africa’s oldest republic celebrated its 164^th independence anniversary earlier this year. Yet the country classifies among the 48 poorest countries on earth. Health conditions are appalling, illiteracy widespread and unemployment sky-high. Whereas fifty years ago the Liberian economy was one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the civil war that raged between 1989 and 2003 destroyed everything that had been built up during the previous century.

After the resignation of warlord-president Charles Taylor in 2003 the country had to start from scratch: rebuild the economy, regain the confidence of investors – both foreign and domestic – and reconcile the population. The ‘classical’ divide in the Liberian society, between descendants of the 19^th century settlers (‘Americo-Liberians’) and the tribal population (‘Afro-Liberians’), had been complicated by a civil war based on tribal identity and alliances.

In the runoff election of November 8, 2005 two competitors competed for the presidency: veteran politician Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and former soccer star George Weah (‘King George’). The Iron Lady won, with 60% of the votes. Africa’s first democratically elected President is a Harvard educated economist with an extensive international network, has tribal roots, and an Americo-Liberian background.  Whereas the first two characteristics  have much helped to regain the confidence of the international community, her internal political position is not undisputed. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf acknowledged supporting  Charles Taylor in the first phase of the civil war – for which she later publicly apologized. In 2009 Liberia’s Truth and Reconciliation Committee (TRC) recommended in its final report that she be banned from public office for thirty years after the expiration of her presidential term. The TRC report’s recommendations, however, were never subject of an official political debate. Another reason for her low popularity among many Liberians is the high level of corruption in the country, notably among civil servants. It can hardly surprise with an annual budget of only 550 million US dollars (fiscal year 2011/2012), even if the Minister of Finance recently announced that the minimum salary of civil service employees will be raised to 100 US dollars a month. In addition, according to unconfirmed rumours membership of Sirleaf’s Unity Party (UP) has become a prerequisite for government employment – a phenomenon common in many African countries.

Sirleaf’s main competitor in the race to the Executive Mansion also is a Harvard graduate. The 70 year old Winston A. Tubman is a politician of Americo-Liberian descent. He earned a degree from Harvard Law School in 1966, then established his own law firm in Liberia. He also has extensive United Nations experience, most recently as the Secretary-General’s representative and head of the United Nations Political Office for Somalia, from 2002 to 2005. He belongs to one of Liberia’s most influential families, the name Tubman is well known to all Liberians. Winston Tubman’s uncle was William V.S. Tubman, Liberia’s longest ruling president (1944-1971). Winston Tubman served as Minister of Justice under dictator Samuel Doe and in 2005 unsuccessfully ran for president on the ticket of Samuel Doe’s National Democratic Party of Liberia (NDPL). In the October 11 elections he is the presidential candidate of George Weah’s Congress for Democratic Change (CDC).

Perhaps the most important opposition politician is Counselor Charles W. Brumskine, the leader of the Liberty Party. He ended third in the 2005 presidential elections. In the 1990s Brumskine was an important ally of Charles Taylor and in 1997 became President Pro Tempore of the Senate. He fled Liberia after he broke with Taylor and his political party. Allegedly, Charles Brumskine had ties with Gus Kouwenhoven – accused of arms trading for Taylor during the civil war.

Sirleaf, Tubman and Brumskine are the main contenders although there are thirteen more who want to become Liberia’s next president. One of them is millionaire Dew Mayson, once a progressive politician, later serving under Doe, and allegedly rich because of his involvement in the sale of arms and his relationship with Dutch arms dealer Gus Kouwenhoven.  Another presidential aspirant is former warlord Prince Yormie Johnson, who led the I-NPFL faction in Liberia’s civil war and tortured President Samuel Doe to death in 1990. Veteran politician Togbah Nah Tipoteh may have the cleanest record of all candidates. He has a firm reputation of being uncorrupt and principled, and is one of the few leading Liberian politicians who stayed in the country throughout the civil war period. This even made him one of the most serious candidates after a referendum was rejected which maintained the constitutional ‘residency clause’ for presidential candidates at ten years. However, not surprisingly, the Chairman of the National Election Commission (NEC), James Fromoyan, hastened to declare that the formulation of the clause was vague and ambiguous, and hence did not hold. Fromoyan was subsequently accused of being pro-UP, the political party of President Sirleaf.

National and international observers will monitor the October 11 elections. Whatever the outcome of these elections, Liberia needs political stability and peace if it wants to develop and improve the living conditions of its population. This week it was announced that ArcelorMittal has begun operations at it mining site in Yekepa, Nimba County, where half a century ago the Swedish-Liberian LAMCO mining company contributed to the double digit growth of the Liberian economy. On October 11 the people of Liberia will not only vote for a president but also for progress.

Gaddafi’s political end is near

Gaddafi is no stranger to Liberia. When Moammar Gaddaffi seized power, in 1969, he became one of the world’s youngest heads of state. At that time William V.S. Tubman ruled in Liberia. William R. Tolbert who became President after Tubman’s death in 1971 changed his predecessor’s rigid, western-oriented foreign policy. In 1974 President Tolbert and Moammar Gaddafi, head of Libya’s Revolutionary Command Council, signed an agreement for economic and commercial cooperation though it would take nearly five years to formalize the entire agreement, in 1979 – under the administration of then Finance Minister Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Gaddafi visited Liberia the same year, on the occasion of the OAU summit which was held in Liberia.

The following year the coup d’état took place that changed Liberia’s history. Gaddafi immediately expressed support for the new military junta, led by master-sergeant Samuel Doe, but, after initially hesitating between a pro-US or a pro-Soviet stance, Doe opted for the Americans. US President Reagan, inaugurated in 1981, was very pleased with ‘Chairman Moe’ who closed the Libyan embassy in Monrovia, a decision which revealed a rift in the ruling People’s Redemption Council (PRC), its Vice-Chairman Thomas Weh-Syen criticizing Doe’s decision. Thomas Weh-Syen represented the left-wing of the PRC, opposing relations with the USA. When in 1981 Weh-Syen returned from a visit to Gaddafi’s Libya he was arrested, accused of plotting against Doe, and with four others executed on August 14, 1981.

Despite Doe’s dislike for the Libyan leader he visited Tripoli, the capital of Libya, in 1988, when US-Liberian relations were increasingly growing sour. It has been reported that Libya invested over USD 100 million of investments in Liberia between 1980 and 1990. Investments included the creation and commercialization of the Union Glass Factory, which exported glass bottles to Mano River Union (MRU) partners Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone and Guinea, and the construction of the Pan African Plaza, which now houses the staff of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL).

While Doe and Gaddafi were courting each other another Liberian visited Libya. His name was Charles Taylor. Allegedly Taylor received military training in one of Libya’s camps at Mathaba in 1985. Moses Blah, Taylor’s Vice President testified before Liberia’s Truth and Reconciliation Committee (TRC) that Libya provided military training and financial support to the NPFL fighters, paid for Taylor’s home in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, used by Taylor to travel to and from Tripoli. Allegedly the Libyan leader also organized and financed the recruiting and arming of NPFL sympathizers in neighboring West African countries, aided by his Burkinabe ally President Blaise Compaore, who – besides – had also received a military training in Libya. All this was confirmed by former US Secretary of State for African affairs, Herman Cohen, who testified before the TRC: ‘We knew that then guerrilla fighters had been trained in Libya and that their arms had come from Burkina Faso, and they were getting full support from Côte d’Ivoire.’

Gaddafi and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

During the present administration of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf economic and diplomatic relations between Libya and Liberia were increasing – until June this year. Bilateral cooperation increased with Libyan-funded agricultural projects and with Libyan investments in Liberia’s infrastructure. Gaddafi’s fall will mean these projects’ end, or at least a temporary standstill.

In January 2009, Colonel Moammar Gaddafi made a stopover at the Robertsfield International Airport in Harbel, Liberia, where he met with President Sirleaf. Two years later Ellen Johnson Sirleaf visited Tripoli.

Apparently, relations between the two Heads of State were more than good, given the images of their meetings and the length of the January 2011 visit. What was intended to be a one-day visit lasted three days, January 6-8. On the first day of her visit, President Sirleaf was offered a dinner by the Libyan leader. Talks were held on a great variety of topics: on the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) and other African issues like the crisis in the Ivory Coast and the related problem of the over 30,000 refugees. President Sirleaf and the Libyan leader also had a comprehensive review of the Libya funded projects in Liberia, notably the Foya Rice project, the Ducor Hotel rehabilitation project, the rehabilitation of the rubber processing plant in Bong County, and the Libya-donated tractors. 
The USD 30 mln Foya Rice project, in Lofa County, is one of the most controversial agricultural investments in Liberia and is being implemented through the Foundation for African Development Aid (ADA), a Libyan company, and Libya Africa Investment Portfolio (LAP). Reportedly the project failed before it even started and not a grain of rice has been harvested. Furthermore, the Liberian government had formally handed over to the Libyan African Investment Company (LAICO) the Ducor Hotel in Monrovia and the Gbarnga Rubber Processing Site, both of which were to be redeveloped with Libyan financing. The cost of the two projects were estimated at USD 65 million.

Before leaving Tripoli President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf extended an invitation to Colonel Gaddafi to join her at this year’s July 26 celebrations in Lofa County as her special guest.

However, a month after the meeting in Tripoli, the revolt started in the Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, echoing events in neighboring Egypt and Tunisia where dictators had been forced to relinquish power. Four months later, on June 16 Liberia severed diplomatic relations with Libya, joining an increasing group of countries distancing themselves from a former ally, friend and partner. That was three days after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had urged African leaders to drop Gaddafi at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.

First, Liberia. In July 1847 a Constitutional Convention convened in Monrovia which at that time had approximately 1,000 inhabitants. The towns of Monrovia, New Georgia, Caldwell and Millsburg in Montserrado County, Marshall, Edina, Bexley and Bassa Cove – Buchanan in Grand Bassa County and Greenville in Sinoe County sent eleven delegates to the Convention: 6 from Montserrado County, 4 from Grand Bassa County and 1 from Sinoe County. Liberia was declared a Free, Sovereign and Independent Nation on 26 July, 1847. The constitution of the republic  differed only in some aspects from the U.S. Constitution.  Also the Liberian flag closely resembles the American national symbol. The eleven stripes of the Liberian flag refer to the eleven delegates to the Constitutional Convention, who signed the Declaration of Independence.

The eleven men were: Samuel Benedict, presiding the convention, Hilary Teague, Elijah Johnson, John N. Lewis, Beverly R. Wilson and J.B. Gripon (representatives of Montserrado County); John Day, Amos Herring, Anthony W. Gardner, Ephrain Titler (representatives of Grand Bassa County); and Richard E. Murray, representative of Sinoe County. The independent state of Maryland in Africa, created in 1854, joined Africa’s first republic in 1857. 

Secondly, the Netherlands. On 26 July, 1581 the parliament of the Northern Low Countries adopted the Act of Abjuration which in fact represented a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. Since 1559 the people of the ‘Low Lands’ as the region was commonly called, fought for  independence from the King of Spain who then ruled over a large part of western Europe. The main issue at stake was the freedom of religion. The Dutch Revolt would only lead to a de jure (formal) independence in 1648, but the de facto independence dates from this historic day: 26 July, 1581. Four hundred and thirty years ago…  

The 1581 Act of Abjuration  is known to have served worldwide as an exemple, e.g. for the authors of the U.S. Declaration of Independence (1776) as well as for the French revolutionaries who abolished the monarchy and established the French Republic (1789). Hence, indirectly, the Act of Abjuration was a source of inspiration for the constitutions of the 20th century, e.g. in Africa.

No common knowledge, I assume… 

Thirdly, 26 July …. is my birthday. What a coincidence, to be born on this historic day. So today I celebrate my birthday, the independence of my country, and Liberia’s independence!

Have a Happy 26 July!!!

Dr. Okonjo-Iweala is an Igbo, from Delta State, and of royal descent. Her father, Professor Chukuka Okonjo, is the Obi, or King, from the Umu Obi Obahai Royal family of Ogwashi-Ukwu. She was educated at Harvard University – like Ellen Johnson Sirleaf – graduating magna cum laude in 1977, and earned her Ph.D. in regional economics and development from the Massachusetts Institute of Technlogy (MIT). Prior to her appointment as Nigeria’s Finance Minister she had a 21-year career as development economist at the World Bank – an employer she shares with Ellen Johnson Sirleaf – and in 2006 she returned to her former employer. When World Bank Director Paul Wolfowitz had to quit the institution, she was even considered as a possible replacement. In 2007, she was appointed as Managing Director at the World Bank by Wolfowitz’s successor, Robert Zoellick.

A very recent evaluation of the 2005 debt deal between the Paris Club and Nigeria concludes that the decision to relieve Nigeria’s debt was justified – a remarkable conclusion given the widespread criticism of the agreement. Its critics pointed at the high oil revenues worth billions of US dollars, Nigeria’s notorious reputation as one of the world’s most corrupt countries, and the mismanagement of the public sector. The evaluation report provides ample argumentation for this positive and surprising conclusion.
The second, and in view of the future, most important conclusion is that Nigeria’s economic and financial position has improved since 2005, in part thanks to the debt relief agreement. Nigeria’s current economic position is much better than before the agreement. This is an important achievement since one of Nigeria’s ambitions is to belong to the world’s top twenty economies by the year 2020, elaborated in ‘Vision 2020′. Already Nigeria is the second biggest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa!

Like Okonjo-Iweala, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf struck an important deal erasing the external debt of Africa’s oldest republic, a staggering US $4 billion, an insupportable burden for this small West African country of just over 3 million people. It would be interesting to have this debt cancellation evaluated too. After all, the tax payers in the developed creditor countries are footing the bill, one way or the other. Notwithstanding the foregoing, however, the evaluators of Nigeria’s debt deal concluded that the creditor countries have also benefited from the deal.
In April of this year Goodluck Jonathan was elected in his own right as Nigeria’s new president. On May 6 he was sworn in as the country’s 14^th and current president. Subsequently it was announced that madame Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is to become President Jonathan’s new Minister of Finance.  Though not yet confirmed when publishing the present post, Nigerian newspapers already reported on the Senate screening of ministerial candidates and the confirmation of Okonjo-Iweala’s nomination.

She again faces an enormous challenge: to contribute to the realization of the Vision 20:2020 agenda of the Federal Government. I have no doubt Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala will again play a key role in the national politics of Africa’s biggest country. Her close relations with Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, also a former Minister of Finance and who rose to the highest position in her country, may be inspiring. Certainly we will hear a lot more about her. As an appetizer, see this entertaining and interesting November 2010 Africare Interview with the two most powerful women in West Africa, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala and President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Be sure to put on a full screen!

Africa Interview: President Sirleaf, Dr. Darius Mans and Dr. Okonjo-Iweala